April 26, 2018
Let’s assume that the neocons prevail and we do indeed have war in Syria.
Without bringing nukes into the picture, what would happen?
It would begin with a bombardment by American and Israeli forces. As a result, perhaps an American cruiser or a warship off the coast of Syria would be sunk. About a dozen pilots would die to AA defenses. Especially now that the S-300s are going to be deployed all over Syria and the effectiveness of the SAA defences has been proven.
However, the limited Syrian airforce and Syrian air defense and missile defense would not be able to hold against the American and Israeli air force for long.
As a result, tens of thousands of Syrians would probably die under the Israeli and American bombardment. Afterwards, the Jihadis would swoop in and start beheading people who cooperated with the government en masse.
Probably a couple hundred American soldiers on the ground would die to guerrilla attacks, IEDs and resistance from the SAA.
And just like that, the war in Syria would be won. Another Shock and Awe victory.
But even under this relatively successful scenario, I don’t think that the war is possible.
The American public is very casualty-sensitive. They don’t have the stomach for even the limited losses that a hypothetical war with Syria would bring.
This means that any war with Syria involves just bombing Assad’s forces from afar and arming ISIS and Al-Qaeda to do the actual fighting, not American troops.
After Iraq and Afghanistan, no one is willing to incur high losses of US troops in America
And everything changes when you bring Russia into the picture.
Now, all of a sudden, we can guarantee that thousands of sailors will be lost because the Russians absolutely can and will sink American ships parked off the Syrian coast.
The number of downed pilots will dramatically shoot up as more advanced Russian AA defense like the S-400 come into play AND the small Russian airforce engages with the American one.
With Russian special forces helping the SAA, the American advance will be slower and far more painful, even if ultimately successful.
This scenario is also highly unlikely.
Given this, I think that we’re in the clear. The Russian presence in Syria fundamentally changes the game – there can be no outright invasion, no matter the number of gassed babies.
The Deep State/Mossad plan for Syria has not changed.
They are going to continue arming Wahabi terrorists and Kurdish separatists. With occasional airstrikes and special forces interventions, they will help the terrorists to stay in the game and continue bleeding Assad.
Meanwhile, they will pressure Russia in Ukraine or the Caucasus instead to distract them.
Only by making Russia pull out does the invasion of Syria become possible.
And even then, I’m not sure America really needs to do much. Just provide support for the Jihadis while they roll up Assad’s forces.
America would then intervene to stamp out “radical extremism” after the ISIS flag is flying over Damascus and they have a casus belli.
We keep an eye on developments in Russia’s near abroad. If things heat up in Ukraine, the Caucasus, the Baltics even perhaps, then we can assume that this is probably indeed the plan.
Let’s see what happens next.