April 14, 2018
First things first.
Russia is going to have to fight a war.
I think that this is clear at this point. The only question is to figure out what front they will fight on. It will either be the Baltics, Ukraine, Syria or maybe the Caucasus.
Worst case scenario is that Russia will have to fight on several fronts at once.
There is an upside to all of this though.
First and foremost, Russia will have to double-down on nationalism.
Contrary to popular opinion about how based Russia is, there are a lot of traitors in the government and in the media and in key positions in the economy.
This fraction of people has been in power since the nineties and the American-supported reforms under Yeltsin.
Putin has clamped down on these people piece-meal over the years. These events will accelerate his clampdown. It’s already happening. All over Russian TV there is a consensus – you’re either on team Russia or you’re an enemy. The liberals and pro-Western voices are uncharacteristically quiet.
This is good for Russia.
Not so good for the pro-Western faction.
There will probably be an accelerated purge of the 5th column elements now that it’s do or die for Russia.
Russia Will Have to Respond
This is just like a chess game, and it’s Russia’s turn to make a move.
Anatoly Karlin listed out a series of moves Russia can make in response to the attack. I agree with his analysis.
Russia can double-down in Syria and start committing more resources – this will be a direct response to the US’s and Israel’s escalation. It will be difficult because they are outgunned by the hostile Arab countries, the Americans, Israel and can’t rely on Turkey.
Russia can take off the gloves with Ukraine. The DNR and LNR are too weak to hold back Kiev on their own. Meanwhile, the Easter Ceasefire has been broken by Kiev’s renewed shelling of Donetsk’s residential neighborhoods. This means that Russia will have to intervene soon anyway or risk losing the East. The debate is whether they just plug the gap or commit to destroying the Ukrainian army and taking Kiev. This plan will be costly, and will basically set all of Europe implacably against Russia, for whatever reason. But it will also rally the nationalists behind Putin again like after Crimea.
Russia can overrun the Baltics. This is perhaps the most realistic in terms of military success, but also the most dangerous move. These are NATO countries, after all. Russia also has a casus belli ready – the mistreatment of Russians by Baltic governments. Again, this would rally Russia’s nationalist and patriots behind the president and shore up Putin’s support base.
It is a damn shame that all of this is happening, of course.
Given the success of the Alt-Right in America and the migration crisis hitting the entire White world, I honestly thought there was a chance for a better future. White people everywhere began to wake up. Most of all, I hoped that the Brother’s Wars would come to an end and that sane nationalists would take back their countries and lead to a renaissance of White civilization.
Now, it seems that we will have to fight one more White War and I don’t know what the outcome of it will be.
All I know is that Russia is cornered and will begin to lash out. We just have to see what they will do next.